US consumer confidence
  • Prior was 110.7 (revised to 108.0)


  • Present situation index 161.3 vs 148.5 prior
  • Expectations 83.8 vs 85.6 prior
  • 1 year Inflation 5.2% vs 5.6% prior -- lowest since 2020
  • Jobs hard-to-get 9.8 vs 13.2 prior

“January’s increase in consumer confidence likely reflected slower inflation, anticipation of lower interest rates ahead, and generally favorable employment conditions as companies continue to hoard labor,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “The gain was seen across all age groups, but largest for consumers 55 and over. Likewise, confidence improved for all incomes groups except the very top; only households earning $125,000+ saw a slight dip."

The uptick in the present situation is a good sign but falling expectations dulls it. For the Fed, the biggest news might be that dip in inflation expectations, though they've been deceived by one month of survey data before.

present situation and expectations