US retail control group July
  • Prior was +1.0% (revised to +0.8%)
  • Ex autos +0.4% vs -0.1% expected
  • Prior ex autos +1.0%(revised to +0.9%)
  • Control group +0.8% vs +0.6% expected
  • Prior control group +0.8%(revised to +0.7%)
  • Ex autos and gas +0.7% vs +0.7% prior
  • Retail sales % y/y unadjusted for inflation +10.1% vs +8.4% prior
  • Sales y/y ex gasoline stations unadjusted for inflation +7.8% vs +5.1% prior

Economist expectations ranged from -0.3% to +0.9%.

Fed pricing ahead of the report was 58% for 75 basis points and that ticked to 60% afterwards. This is the second month in a row with a stronger control group, albeit this time with a slight downward revision.

I'm not seeing much (any?) evidence of weakness from the US consumer despite declines in consumer sentiment, rising interest rates and the drumbeat of recession talk.

The US dollar has made some further gains on this, especially against the yen. It's now at a session high up, 113 pips to 135.35.

The second column here offers some insight on what's happening in the economy. Gasoline prices have surged but there's also a shift away from home, electronics and appliances spending. Autos are also growing but modestly on pandemic effects and the lack of available inventory. Online (non-store retailers) are still surprisingly strong but that jumped from June and may be due to Prime Day.

US retail details