US retail sales Nov 2022
  • Lowest since Dec 2021
  • Prior was +1.3%
  • Ex autos +-0.2% vs -0.1% expected
  • Prior ex autos +1.3%(revised to +1.2%)
  • Control group -0.2% vs +0.2% expected
  • Prior control group +0.7% (revised to +0.5%)
  • Ex autos and gas -0.2% vs +0.9% prior
  • Gasoline stations -0.1% m/m vs +4.1% prior
  • Electronics and appliance stores -1.5% m/m
  • Furniture stores -2.6% m/m

The soft reading on the control group along with a negative revision is a sign that the consumer isn't as strong as thought. We heard from airlines this week as well that bookings aren't as brisk as hoped for. That said, I wonder if in 2021 consumers were Christmas shopping earlier due to delivery delays and that spending will creep into December this year. Note that these numbers aren't adjusted for inflation and sales were up 6.5%, which is slower than the pace of prices rises.

Also, big ticket items like electronics and furniture are often forward-looking indicators for consumers and both continue to stumble. Restaurants are holding up (+0.9%) and that will be a spot to watch.

The US dollar hasn't moved much on this report but Treasury yields have moved down after a pop on the ECB. US equity futures are at session lows, down 1.3%.