US advance GDP data
US advance GDP data
  • Final Q3 reading was +4.9% annualized
  • Q2 was +2.1% annualized


  • Consumer spending 2.8% vs +3.1% prior
  • Consumer spending on durables +4.6% vs +6.7% prior
  • GDP final sales +3.2% vs +3.6% prior
  • GDP deflator 1.5% vs +2.3% expected (+3.3% prior)
  • Core PCE +2.0% vs +2.0% expected (+2.0% prior)
  • Business investment +2.1% vs +10.0% prior
  • Full report

Percentage point changes:

  • Net trade +0.43pp vs +0.03 pp prior
  • Inventories +0.07pp vs +1.27 pp prior
  • Govt +0.56pp vs +0.99 pp prior

The final Atlanta Fed tracker was +2.4% and it was closer to the market but still far below this number. Low inflation numbers fed into real GDP while trade and government were both strong contributors. Some are expecting recent inventory builds to reverse but that didn't happen in Q4.

The market reaction has been choppy but the US dollar is mostly lower and equity futures are higher, though not dramatically. GDP was released alongside several other indicators.