US CPI yy
- CPI y/y 3.7% versus 3.6% expected
- Prior y/y 3.7%
- CPI m/m +0.4% versus +0.3% expected
- Prior m/m +0.6%
- 0.248513%
Core measures:
- Core CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.3% expected. Last month 0.3%
- Unrounded core at +0.32% vs +0.278% prior
- Core CPI y/y 4.1% versus 4.1% expected. Last month was 4.3%
- Shelter +0.6% versus +0.3% last month. Year on year 7.2% versus 7.3% last month
- Services less rent and shelter +0.6% m/m vs +0.5% prior
- Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs -0.1% prior
- Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% m/m prior
- Energy +1.5% m/m vs +5.6% m/m prior
- Rents +0.5% vs +0.5% prior
- Owner equivalent rent +0.6% vs +0.4% prior
Fed pricing was at 10% for a November hike and 30% for December ahead of the data, with 77 bps in cuts priced in for 2024. US 10-year yields were trading down 4.7 bps to 4.55% ahead of the numbers and rose to 4.59% afterwards.
Yesterday, there was a 20-pip kneejerk reaction higher following a hot PPI print that was quickly faded. That could be a hint that the market is no longer concerned about inflation.
The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase.
Here's the take from Guy Lebas at Janney:
"Services ex-food, energy, & shelter (Fed's "super core") +0.1% and running +1.1% 3-month annualized isn't remotely concerning..
Today's CPI isn't going to move the needle on Nov hike (not happening). Beware of "inflation rising" narrative w/next month's data."
From Capital Economics:
.. excluding shelter, the core #CPI rose by just 0.1% m/m .. Overall, there is nothing here that will convince Fed officials
to hike rates at the next FOMC meeting, and we continue to expect a more rapid decline in inflation and weaker economic growth ..”
