A note via MUFG on their outlook for USD/JPY. Analysts are targeting 143.00, arguing:

  • they expect a weaker US dollar
  • and see long JPY as the best way to capture this

They do note that USD/JPY has shown resilience with a wide differential in yield helping to keep yen weak

  • but their short term valuation model suggests spot USD/JPY is "well over-valued"
  • valuation model implies fair-value is 143.00
  • see more reasons to short than long, that the timing for a big drop lower could be approaching


USD/JPY update:

usdyen chart update mufg strategy 11 December 2023