Yesterday's data was the final nail in the coffin for expectations of economic growth in Australia in the first quarter of this year:
Westpac have taken note of the data, from a note, in brief:
- The final set of partial economic indicators ... As we flagged in our preview, risks to our forecast were tilted to the downside ... (the) data shows some of this risk has materialised with the drag from the external sector being larger than expected.
- As such, we have revised our GDP forecast down to a flat outcome in the March quarter 2024 from +0.3%qtr previously.
- This would see annual growth ease from 1.5%yr to 1.0%yr – the slowest pace since the December quarter 1991, outside of the pandemic.
- At 1.0%yr, this outcome is well below annual population growth (around 2½%), pointing to further weakness in per capita terms.
The data is due at 11.30am Sydney time:
- 0130 GMT
- 2130 US Eastern time
You can see in the calendar snapshot the +0.2% q/q consensus persists, but this is lower now. Commonwealth Bank of Australia is forecasting: +0.1% q/q / +1.1% y/y
