Short term treasury yields are down on the day while long term yields are up. On a day-to-day basis that could be noise but the day after the FOMC decision, it could be a signal. When long term yields rise faster than short term ones it’s called a “bear steepener”.

The message that the bond market is sending could be of growth expectations where short term yields remain more or less anchored around 5% due to the Fed’s unwillingness to either cut or hike and long-term yields advancing towards the same level on growth prospects.

That is good news on one hand, but could also be bad news on the other as inflation might remain stuck above the Fed’s 2% target or worse, re-accelerate.

US 2-10y Spread
US 2-10y Spread