Deutsche Bank today looks at inbound tourism dollars into the UK and the spike in money that's flowed in from the US. With GBP/USD at 1.25, it's a great time to see the UK at a discount.
"Last year saw a record amount of spending by American tourists in Britain over Q2 and Q3. US spending in the UK almost matched spending by the whole of the Eurozone for the first time. GBPUSD averaged just over 1.20 through Q2 and Q3 last year - making trips to the UK close to 20% cheaper than in the ten years before Covid," DB writes.
With that in mind, it's worth pondering where Chinese tourists opt to visit this summer. GBP/CNH isn't quite as soft as GBP/USD but when weighing the alternatives, it could be time for some Chinese tourists to finally visit the British Museum.
Ultimately, it's a small part of the UK's current account but I do believe it will be a strong summer for travel --especially long haul -- as it's the first year where everything is open, there are few vaccine requirements and no threat of lockdowns.
In terms of other markets, global jet fuel demand is still about 1.2 mbpd below pre-covid levels and if that gap closes in the next six months, it could significantly tighten the oil market along with this week's OPEC cuts.