Forex seasonals: A tailwind is blowing for AUD/USD

Author: Adam Button | Category: Forex Orders

The March-April period is a winner for the Aussie

The March-April period is a winner for the AussieThe Australian dollar has shrugged off risk aversion so far today and that's a familiar pattern in the March-April period.

March is the best month for AUD/USD and April is the 3rd best month. Over the past decade, the pair has averaged a 1.75% and 1.20% monthly gain, respectively.

One warning is that the seasonal tailwind has failed in each of the past two years, so some caution is warranted. That said, there is a solid risk-reward and risk management case to be made with support at the Feb low of 0.7054.

Looking at seasonals more broadly, I wrote about crude strength at the start of February and that was a winner with oil prices rising more than 6% in the month.

Other March patters:
  • Modest DXY weakness
  • 5 consecutive years of weakness in Bitcoin
  • Modest EUR strength
  • Modest gold softness (am I too late on that one?)
  • It's the best month for Japanese and US stocks
  • Best month for NZD
  • Poor month for the yen
The general theme is risk appetite and that's not exactly what we've seen so far but it's only March 4.

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