Well it retraced the sharp run lower yesterday
The AUDUSD is backing off the day's highs and trades back below its 200 hour MA at 0.73825 and the 50% of the move down from June 22 high (at 0.7376).
The run higher today is really a reversal of the run lower yesterday. The pair did fall short of the high from yesterday at 0.74088, but it did stall near a topside trend line that now connects the last 3 highest swing highs (see red numbered circles). PS. Yesterday the low stalled at a lower trend line connecting lows from June 19 and June 27 (see green numbered circles).
The sharp V formation from the low yesterday is indicative of a market that is a bit unsure and also influenced by fear/risk on/risk off. I am not sure that may go away. What may happen is that the market tires of reacting to the ebbs and flows of the trade war, but we won't know until we know.
What we do knows is there is a lower and upper trend line.
In between are the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA (blue and green lines). Those MA can be barometers for more bearish or more bullish.
Currently we trade below the 200 hour MA at 0.7384, but above the 100 hour MA at 0.73627. A move back above the 200 hour MA would keep the buyers more in control. ON a test of the 100 hour MA, I would look for buyers to step in. If not, the market is still probing but the buyers would lose some of there upside bias today.
