Bearish play by traders today
The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level on the daily chart in 2021 today. That is the good news. The not so great news for the sellers is the low reached 0.75626. The low for 2021 from February 2 was at 0.75633. So the break was less than a pip.
Nevertheless, on the way to the low this week, the price moved below neckline of a head and shoulder on the daily chart yesterday and stayed below today. Bearish. The underside of that trend line is at 0.7647. The high today reached 0.76133.
The price also moved below the 100 day MA MA (blue line in the chart above), and closed below that MA yesterday for the first time since early November 2020. The 100 day MA comes in at 0.7606. Stay below is more bearish. The high today did move above that MA to a high of 0.76133, but has moved back below the MA.
The price also has now been below the 38.2% of the move up from the November 2020 low at 0.76182. The high price today stayed below that topside resistance level.
So overall, although the low broke to a new 2021 low by only a pip, there are some bearish clues from the daily chart that will keep the bias bearish unless those breaks fail. Sellers are making a play. Its up to them to make the next break below the 0.7563 area.
On the downside, on a break, the 50% retracement of the move up from the November 2020 low comes in at 0.74983 (call it 0.7500).
