AUD is the lead gainer in the major bloc today

Although trading range remains narrow, the aussie manages to eek out some gains early on in the day despite the lack of catalysts - there is Chinese import data earlier though. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7771 just shy of the highs today at 0.7778.

Looking at the daily chart, the spike this week sees the pair break the year's theme of "lower lows, lower highs" - after finding support at the 76.4/23.6 retracement level as highlighted last week here.

And the break of the pattern is key as it shakes off the recent pessimism behind the aussie. The next key test for the pair is the 100-day MA (red line) at 0.7791 and the 200-day MA (blue line) at 0.7815.

My bias after the Q1 GDP report last year has been bearish on the aussie since near the 0.8000 levels. But this week's break changes the bearish picture a little - at least for me.

In the bigger picture, I still don't believe that the RBA will be able to move to hike rates this year considering the inflation and household debt conundrum. And as long as that stays in the fold, it's tough to see the aussie side of the equation backing up the pair more than it currently has.