50%, 200 hour MA and 100 day MA
The AUDUSD is moving to a new day low and in the process is starting to test the next cluster of support including the:
- 50% of the move up from the May 15 low at 0.65084
- 200 hour moving average at 0.65015
- 100 day moving average at 0.64921.
The bearishness today got going after breaking a upward sloping trendline (from a triangle formation) and then the 100 hour moving average (blue line). Since breaking below the 100 hour moving average, the price initially found early support buyers against the 50% retracement, but the corrective move to the upside seems to have lost steam with the downside momentum restarting.
Having said that the 3 technical support targets should give some earlier sellers some profit-taking targets before the weekend. Risk can be defined and limited against the area with stops below the 100 day moving average the most likely scenario.
Risk for shorts looking for more downside may be as low as 0.6524 (swing low from Wednesday's trade). Above that the 38.2% retracement at 0.6533 area should attract the sellers if the price action is to remain more to the downside.
As the China/US/Hong Kong news becomes more and more a concern, that has investors worried in the implications on the AUD (a major exporter to China). Hence the weakness today.