The AUDUSD is wafflng up and down in a narrow trading range. The pair is higher by about 10 or so pips, but has only traded in a 25 pip trading range. The 22 day average (around a month of trading) is 78 pips. There is room to roam, but traders seem uninterested at the moment.
What the consolidation has done on the hourly chart above, is to allow the downward sloping trendline and 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) to come more in play. Both are currently near 0.7633. Get back above those levels would increase the bullish bias, and have traders looking toward other targets including the 200 hour moving average at 0.7668.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the longer-term biases still seems more to the upside, although traders did get back below a shelf area near 0.7642 to 0.7676 that gives sellers hope.
Yesterday and also on Monday, the high price stalled within that swing area which is encouraging for sellers. Having said that, there still is more room to the downside before the sellers can take back more control from the longer term perspective.
Nevertheless if the price can remain below the 0.7642 now, that will give them more confidence for more downside probing. Key moment for the pair after the recent dip lower.
PS Helping the downside fundamentally, was the RBA decision yesterday that they would increase bond buying starting in April. That in effect extended QE. Numbers out of China early this week or also a little bit worrisome and could impact the currency to the downside.