The data is here:

…………. big jump in part-time and not much added in full time

… AND prior total, full time, part-time, revised down
But …
Good increase in employment
Good increase in participation
A mixed report


  • Today was an upside surprise on total employment
  • But it is not outside the range of normal monthly volatility
  • Remains consistent with modest employment growth
  • The breakdown of the of the survey details highlights a soft labour market
  • Also highlighting a soft update was the –0.3% fall in total hours worked although the annual rate to lifted to 1.3%yr from 1.2%yr on base effects
  • The leading indicators had been suggesting that total employment growth should be around 1½%yr by year end with a further possible acceleration in early 2015. However, in the last few months the employment indicators in the various business surveys have dipped below their long run average suggesting that any bump up in the pace of employment growth, may prove to be fleeting
  • At a current pace of 1.2%yr we are not far from this likely peak


  • It’s a hell of a lot better than expected but the devil is always in the detail
  • The net outcome is a labour market that is just not providing all the jobs that are required for the new entrants, so we get this gradual drift upward in the unemployment rate
  • It is quite slight, but it’s enough for the market to think in the bigger scheme of things maybe the risks are biased towards a rate cut early next year


  • some encouragement for the RBA that the labor market is hanging in there and not fraying too much at the edges
  • That the growth was mostly in part-time jobs … “does take away a little bit from the headline result”


  • A mixed report
  • Looks to be a reasonable amount of labour market slack and if anything, it looks to be increasing a little and is consistent with an economy travelling at sub-trend pace
  • For the RBA, numbers like this will keep them on hold for the foreseeable future
  • If that trend in the unemployment rate higher accelerates, that would open the door to further cuts


  • On balance, slightly firmer than expectations
  • … on balance when you get a broadly unchanged unemployment rate and a much better employment outcome it lessens the chance somewhat (of a cut to rates) particularly with the currency being back down at 83, 84. That makes the RBA’s job a bit easier if the currency is doing the work