The EURUSD tested the swing low level at 1.2159. Bounces modestly
The EURUSD moved lower on the back of a stronger ADP and initial dollars claims (and productivity). The pair moved to a low of 1.21587. That was right around the swing level at 1.2159 to 1.2161 (see green numbered circles). Yesterday, the swing low stalled just ahead of that area. Going back to May 17 through May 21, there were other swing low levels that stalled at that area.
Admittedly on May 28, the price tumbled below that level triggering stops on its way to the extreme low of 1.21319, but that move was reversed and once the price moved back above, the sellers turned to buyers and pushed the price up toward the highs from May 25/26.
Overall, the EURUSD as been trading in a fairly confined trading range with the value area (where most of the trading has taken place) between 1.2159 and 1.22448. There have been extremes on the topside up to 1.22657 and on the downside to 1.21319. But most of the activity is within that Red Box.
Eventually, there will be a break outside "the box" and also outside of the extreme highs and lows, and the market will start to trend more.
For today, the technicals are tilting obviously to the downside. After moving above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages in yesterday's New York trading, the price dipped back below those moving averages in the Asian session today.
Moreover there was a spike high that stalled right at the 100 hour moving average. Staying below that moving average gave the Bears/sellers the control.
A closer risk area above comes between 1.21738 and 1.21830 (see blue numbered circles). If the price can stay below that area, it would keep the sellers more control.
