EUR/USD trades in a ~90 pips range over the past two weeks
The pair is holding lower on the day as the dollar recoups some of its losses from yesterday's trading, with the low having hit 1.1241 and testing key near-term support levels in the form of the 100-hour MA (red line) and the 200-hour MA (blue line) earlier.
The 100-day MA @ 1.1249 is also a key point of interest for both buyers and sellers today so keep an eye on that level ahead of the close as well.
But the bigger picture points to a more indecisive mood among traders.
Since the start of last week, the pair has been largely bouncing between lows near the 1.1200 handle and highs close to 1.1280 with the low recorded on 9 July @ 1.1193 and the high seen on 11 July @ 1.1286.
Of note, the pair has challenged the 1.1200 handle twice while testing highs around 1.1280 three times during this period.
I reckon the choppy price action largely reflects the sentiment ahead of key monetary policy decisions by the ECB (next week) and the Fed (the week after) at the end of this month. It will all boil down to which currency will react more profoundly to the language offered by their respective central bank.
In terms of near-term price action, the trade would be to go with the break on either side of the current range. But looking at things further out:
There is added support for the pair around 1.1177-84 and that will be the key area to watch in chasing a move to the downside. Should that give way, sellers will have a clearer path to retest the year's lows closer to 1.1100.
Meanwhile, further topside resistance is seen at the 200-day MA (blue line) @ 1.1317 with swing highs around 1.1340-50 also playing a role in potentially limiting gains. Beyond that, the key test will be the 1.1400 handle to see if buyers can show enough conviction to break out to fresh four-month highs.
