1.2125 to 1.21317 low value area tested
Looking at the hourly chart of the EURUSD, the pair is down testing a low "value area" that has confined most of the trading since May 14. That low area comes in at 1.21254 to 1.21317.
Looking at the hourly chart, a low of the price action since May 14 has traded between 1.21254 to 1.22448. There have been a lot of ups and downs within that area. Yes, there was breaks above that area to the high at 1.22656 and a break to a low at 1.21035. Those levels are important as well, but most activity is within that area.
Testing the level now, to me, is a key test for the sellers. The break comes after traders did a pretty good job of chopping up longs and shorts in what has been a meat grinder for all traders. It has been a mess.
People don't like messes. They tire of them. So moving toward extremes makes sense. Getting below, does not lead to green grass and high tides forever. In fact, the pair moves more into an older swing area. The next target will be at 1.2099 to 1.2106. Move below that, and the 1.2051 to 1.20564 followed by the 100 day MA at 1.20421 would be eyed.
If you don't like the "get outta the mess" mode, this area is a buy area, with traders looking for 1.21609 and then the converged 100/200 hour MAs at 1.2177 area (the 50% of the recent range is around that area too).
Time will tell. But sellers are making a play and taking a step away from "the mess". Can it continue?