High price stalls under the 2010 swing low
The 1.1876 was the swing low from 2010. That level was the low until breaking in the first week of 2015. Since then, the price of the EURUSD has stayed below that level. That is until yesterday when it was broken, stops were triggered and the price moved to a high of 1.1910 (see the 5 minute chart below).
That break could not be sustained and when the price moved back below the buyers turned to sellers (the market was tired). Today, the high price stalled against that level. So sellers are leaning again.
Staying on the 5-minute chart, the price is down testing the converged 100 and 200 bar MAs at 1.1846. The price has been waffling below and above those MAs today as it consolidates the gains. A move below will be more bearish again. If support can hold the intraday bulls keep control.
Taking a look at the hourly chart, the pair is testing a trend line (at 1.0843). That line has had some small breaks today but no momentum on those break.
If there is another break today, the pair could start to head down toward the 100 hour MA at 1.1804 (and rising). The 50% of the move up from the week's low is also an interim level of interest. That comes in at 1.1816. That was also a swing low from yesterday. That would be another target level for today on more corrective action to the downside.
Overall, the pairs failure to stay above the 1.1876 level is telling me that a slowing of the trend move higher is in order. That was confirmed with the successful test today.
The questions becomes "How far does the correction go? Is the high in place?"
Those answers will come off the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5-minute and the trend line on the hourly initially. If the price can get below, there could be a meeting of support at the 1.1816 and then the 100 hour MA. If it holds, the 1.1876 remains the key level to the upside.
