What next for the pair.
Technically, the pair had a pretty good run to the downside in the EURUSD. It was a trend day lower. In the process, the price fell below:
- 100 hour MA (blue trend line in chart above) and a cluster of swing lows/highs (at 1.1329/37 yellow area)
- The 200 hour MA (green line) and trend line support
- The 38.2% of the move up from the June 5th low (employment low) at 1.12874
- The 50% of the same move at 1.12418
- The 61.8% of the same move and a number of swing lows at 1.1196-1.1202
- The low from June 12 at 1.1152.
The pair bottomed at the 50% of the move up from the May 27 low finally after about a 215 pip trading range. The level was too much to get through.
What now?
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has been consolidating below the 38.2-50% of the last leg to the downside between 1.11899 and 1.1207. The price has recently "sideways through" a downward trend line and the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below). The 200 bar MA (green line in the chart below) is catching up to the price. The bears remain in control below this area (below 1.1207). If the buyers are to take back more control, they will need to break above this area. If not, the market should be taking a look at what life is like below the 50% level at the 1.1126 in the new trading day. That support level will not be the easiest to break, but unless the buyers can show they can show a little more willingness to correct the 215 pips range today, that is the path of least resistance.
