1.1400 option expires today
The EURUSD last week (and the week before as well, stalled in the 114.35-65 range). There have been a number of peaks in that area going back to Feb 2015 (including the last two weeks). The price has rotated a bit lower from that peak and we currently trade just below the 1.4000 level at 1.1392 currently.
Mike points out, that there is a large option expire at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT (1.1 bln) at the the 1.1400 level. Option seller love when options expire worthless. So they may be trying to keep the price around the level. Buyers of options want the price to move away. If there is a dominant position/player, they may look to move option toward the 1.1400 or away. If there are dominant players on both sides, the price can waffle back and forth. We are seeing a bit of a waffle around the strike price at the moment. That is the theory (or one theory at least).
Another reason, might be that looking at the hourly chart, the pair is sitting just above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.1375-85. The low for the day comes in at 1.1381. There have been no hourly closes below the 200 hour MA (the highest of the moving averages).
A move below the moving averages is more bearish technically for the pair. ON a break, the sellers will start targeting the 1.1360 (61.8%), and the lows from last week at 1.1335, 1.1329 and 1.13119.
On a move higher (get above 1.1400 is first step in this quiet day) and the high for the day at 1.1417, 1.1426 and then 1.1435 comes in to play. The high from June came in at 1.1445. Finally the 1.1465 high from the daily chart will be targeted. Get above 1.1465, and we would be talking about closing above 1.1465 for the 7th time going back to Feb 2015. That would turn the beat even more bullish.
