100 day MA broken. Trend line holds.
The EURUSD tested and held against the 100 day MA yesterday.
The pair started to gather some upside steam in the European session. That took the price above the 200 hour MA at 1.1166 (yesterday the 200 hour MA and the 100 day MA were at the same level when tested), and back to the 100 day MA. That MA comes in at 1.11765 today. Traders have pushed the price above the level to topside trend line (at 1.11877). There is some reluctance to go further it seems.
The range for the week is 88 pips so far. That is the lowest of the year. Of course we had the US holiday on Monday which has helped contribute to the malaise. Non Farm Payroll on Friday is anticipated as well
Looking at the daily chart, the thing that stands out is the holding of 200 day MA below. Last week, the pair stalled near the level and has moved back higher. More bullish?
For today, I am looking for the 200 hour MA to be the level to lean against. That level - along with the 100 day MA held yesterday. Today the two MA are spread away from each other. Traders used the MA as resistance on the way up today, then broke above it. I get the feeling the combination of yesterday and today will make the dip buying the thought in traders minds for this session The MA is at 1.11664. It will need some help off the ISM of course. Regional manufacturing data has been weaker. The expectation is 50.3 vs 50.5 last month.
Am I overly in love with it? No. Just look at the hourly chart and you see the up and down nature of the pair. Holding the 200 hour MA is just step one. Getting above the trend line above and then going after 1.1200 is the next target. Remember the 1.1214-18 is another key level to get and stay above. Last week, the price moved away from this level (to the downside) then corrected to it before heading to test the 200 day MA on Thursday and Friday. So there is work to do.
First things first. Let's see if the 200 hour MA holds support.