Forex technical analysis: EURUSD stays above 100/200 hour MA

But below resistance above

Well... the NFP did extend the EURUSD's range to 59 pips. That was better than the 22 pips the pair was in before the number. The range extension was to the upside (extended the high from 1.1426 to 1.1439) and to the downside (from 114.04 to 1.1380).

The price is currently trading near the lows at 1.1395. Is it as simple as stay below the pre-data low of 1.1404? The midpoint of the day's trading range is 1.14096. I don't want to see the price go above that level if the sellers are to remain in control.

What about the downside. What is holding it up?

Looking at the hourly chart, the 200 hour MA comes in at 1.13745 and the 100 hour MA comes in at 1.13679 (blue and green lines in the chart above). The midpoint of the move up this week comes in at 1.1375. Move below that area and I would expect more selling.

The EURUSD story can be spun by looking at the improvement in the EU or from the perspective that the Fed is already tightening and likely to remain the course AND taper as well. One story is EURUSD bullish. The other story is EURUSD bearish. It depends on the focus on the day.

As a result, traders should go from level to level and if there is a break, look for the next level, but be aware that the story can switch around. In which case, the levels above become the focus. Right not the bias is a bit more bearish (stay below 1.1410 though).

Looking at the daily chart, the 1.1435-65 level held resistance last week and this week. If that is signalling a top and a rotation lower from it, where does the price action take us? What are the steps.

The first step is the high from August 2016 at 1.1365. After that the high from September 2016 at 1.1326. Below that the election day high at 1.1300 comes into play and then 1.1282. That area (1.1282-1.1300 was a touch nut to crack in June, but we have remained above it since the break. Those are the steps for the EURUSD to the downside. but understand the story can change and the price action will help write the story. So pay attention to the technical levels.