What is my story for the GBPUSD from the price action and technicals

If you look at the hourly chart of the GBPUSD, I see a couple Red Boxes. The most recent goes from 1.2860 to 1.2988. The 1.2988 has 3 tops. We peaked this week against that high. It was just below the natural 1.3000 level. It was a nice top.

The 1.2768 to 1.2860 was an older Red Box from April 19 to April 27.

In the most recent box, we held the 1.2860 on April 27 and May 2nd. The level was broken on May 4th and quickly recovered (call it a failed, stop hunting break). More recently - yesterday and today - the level was broken with some time spent below the 1.2860 level, before it rebounded.

I still see 1.2860 as a level to get below and stay below if this pair is going lower.

What else?

Yesterday, the price fell below the 100 and 200 hour MAs yesterday after trying to hold the level (and stay toward the top extreme area of the Red Box). It was broken and the price moved lower. Bulls turned to bears.

What else?

The 1.2902 area is in my focus. On Tuesday, the low reached 1.2902. A swing low yesterday stalled just above that level, then broke. Today the high reached 1.2899. Stay below is more bearish now. I see it like the MAs yesterday, but instead of being a floor, the 1.2902 is a ceiling.

What else?

The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour comes in at 1.28858.

So the area between 1.28858 and the 1.2902 is a wide, thick ceiling. If it holds, bears have an edge.

Now....we can go either way. The failed falls below the 1.2860 level is a concern. The price should've gone lower and stayed down.

However.... there is something about what happened at the high (i.e. staying below the 1.3000), what happened on the break of the 100 and 200 hour MAs (bears take control from bulls) and what happened below 1.2902 (bears keeping control) that has me thinking bears have the edge, OR putting it a different way, the bulls have to take it back by pushing the price back above 1.28857-1.2902 area.

So stay below. That is what I see from the price action. That is what my technical story tells me..... We will see how the story ends.