Today has seen the first move above the 100 hour MA since Dec 31. Auction does not help the bulls.
The dairy price auction showed a -1.4% decline from the previous auction. The weakness in price has the NZDUSD trading lower and back down testing the 100 hour MA ( blue line in the chart below).
The NZDUSD has not close above the 100 hour moving average since December 31, 2015 (it broke at the 0.6848 level on that day). Today,the price moved in closed above. That is more bullish. The move above has seen the pair extend toward the 200 hour moving average at the 0.6519 level (the high came in at 0.65133), but with the weaker dairy prices, the price is back down testing that broken 100 hour moving average at the 0.6465 level.
Is the weakness in dairy prices priced in? Is the move above the 100 hour MA a technical sign to buy the dips and correct further? Or is the BREAK, going to fail and the downward bias continue?
So far, the level is holding. Buyers are leaning against the MA (or so it seems) with stops likely below. The
