Or at least negative weekend risk
The EURCHF and the USDCHF are making new day lows as the European markets head toward the finish line in their trading week.
The moves into the CHF suggest that the money is heading into the relative safety places. Gold is marginally higher and continues to trade above $1300. The US debt yields are lower today with the 10 year down 3.5 basis point to to 1.7762% after trading as high as 1.8207. This is after a pretty good jobs report.
For the EURCHF, the price has moved back below the 1.0800 level.
On Tuesday, that level was broken on the way to the weeks low at 1.0753. That low found support against a swing low area in October 2015 and December 2015 (see daily chart below). In June off the Brexit vote that floor was broken but it was quickly reversed. The rebound off the Wednesday low, peaked yesterday and again today near the 200 hour MA (see green line in the chart above) before moving back lower in the London trading session.
Looking at the USDCHF, it too is trading lower but it is trading at new weeks lows (lowest levels since September 30th). The pair fell below the 100 and 200 day MAs on Tuesday and has remained below those key MAs since that time. Both those MA come in at 0.9773 currently (that is a risk level for shorts now). The high yesterday and again today stalled ahead of those MAs at the 0.97609 area. Also near that level now are a trend line, the 38.2% retracement and 100 hour MA (blue smooth line).
Looking at the daily chart the next key target comes in at 0.9634 level (see daily chart below). Below that and there is not a low until 0.9534-37
Am I surprised to see this action? Not really. The weekend is approaching. The weekend political risk is high (and that will continue into Tuesday). So traders are hedging risk and or anticipating more of the same before - and potentially after - the big events.
