...EURCHF keeps the SNB nervous

The USDCHF has rallied with the USD strength today. The flight to safety balloon has been deflated in the stock market - S&P up 2.09%. It has been deflated in gold - down 1.93%. US bond yields are up 4-5 basis points now as the flight into the safety of bonds has dissipated.

The USDCHF was a same haven over the last 9 -10 days and that balloon has also been deflated - at least a bit today.

Looking at the USDCHF daily price chart above, the price last week moved below the 200 and 100 day MA which both come in currently at the 0.9772 area (blue and green lines in the chart above). Today the price has traded above and below those moving averages. On Friday, the price closed at 0.9677 - the low for the day and low for the week. The SNB is thankful for the fall back down in the CHF (the rally higher). At least that flight into safety has abated a bit.

What is still worrying the SNB is the reaction in the EURCHF.

That pair is currently trading at the lows for the day (see chart below). It also trades back below 1.0800, and is looking to test last week's lows at 1.0754 area.

That is one ledge that if it falls off, will look toward the the next target (ledge) at 1.0729 and then the next at 1.0711 (low from August 2015). Moving below those levels/ledges would be worrisome for the SNB. It may fall into a abyss.

So some pressure is off the USDCHF today, BUT against the EURCHF it still remains deep in the woods. That may prompt some reaction from the SNB if the downward trend were to continue.

Of course much of that will be dependent on Clinton/Trump. If Trump does pull off a victory, both the USDCHF and the EURCHF would be expected to tumble lower. The SNB might not have any choice but enter to stem a trending fall.

If Clinton wins, the USDCHF should rally, but what the EURCHF does is not guaranteed. We are seeing the EURCHF move lower today. If it falls but stays above the aforementioned lows, the SNB will be worried, but will they step in to slow the fall? That is debatable. They may choose to wait and see if pair corrects itself off those levels but I don't think they will tolerate a move below 1.0711.

Another risk to be considered for your trading over the next 24+ hours of trading.