GBPUSD tumble turns the trading bias around

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | gbpusd

Big day lower.  200 bar MA on the 4-hour targeted..

The Carney comments took the wind out of the GBPUSD sails. However, before he even spoke them, the pair was showing some cracks in the bullish armor.


On Tuesday, the price moved to a new year high and to the highest level since Brexit 2016.  On the hourly chart above, that price falied on a break of a topside trend line while those highs were being made.  Bearish. 

Yesterday, the price fell below a trend line and the 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.4263 currently).  The price traded below the 200 hour MA and stalled at the 50% retracement.  The pair then consolidated above and below the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.42245).

Today before the tumble, the price stalled against the corrective high from yesterday (bearish), the price fell back below the 200 hour MA (green line), the comments came and the market tumbled.  

Overall, the bias was already turning. It got an kick lower on the Carney surprise comments.

What next?

The pair have moved about 170 pips on the day, and approaches the next target at the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.4064.  There could be some profit taking against the level, but don't underestimate the bearish price action.  

On a corrective move, it would take a move back above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.4140-45.  That is risk and a bias turner now. The swing low from April 10 and April 12 come in at 1.4145.  Stay below on a correction, keeps the sellers in control. 

Looking at the daily chart below, the price has an upward sloping trend line coming in at 1.4015. That is a downside target on further weakness going forward.