200 day MA at 1.26696
Recall in April, the 200 day MA in the GBPUSD stalled the rally not once but twice.
Fast forward to last Friday, the price moved above the 200 day MA but closed right around the level (see green line in the chart above). Yesterday, the price traded above and below the MA level but closed above. Today, the price traded to the highest level since March 12, but fell back below the 200 day MA level. We currently trade just below the level at 1.26696.
The level remains a key barometer for both buyers and sellers.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the low today at 1.2617 stalled the fall in a swing area from 1.26145 to 1.25366 (yellow area in the chart below). That area is defined by the:
- Swing high from June 3 at 1.26145
- 50% retracement and low from yesterday at 1.26273 area
- 100 hour moving average at 1.26366
The recovery off the low has moved back toward 200 day moving average at 1.26696. The prices been trading above and below that moving average marginally over the last 3 hours. We currently trade right at that moving average.
If the buyers are to take more control they need to get back above the 200 day moving average and stay above. Failure to do that and the battle between the support targets below and the 200 day moving average continues until a winner is declared with a break with momentum.
Buyers and sellers can lean against the extremes with stops on a break if they are unsure and want to trade the range.
If you have a strong bias in one direction or the other, you will get confirmation via a break of your trading bias that has momentum.
