GBPUSD retraces back to neutral area in early NY trading

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | gbpusd

Near 50% of the days range.

The GBPUSD has made an early run lower in the NY session after running higher in the European morning session. That move lower has moved to the 50% midpoint of the move up from yesterday's low. It is also testing the 100 hour MA (blue overlay line on the chart below at 1.27724). There is some stall at the dual level.  A move below, however, will continue to unravel the gains (lots of ups and downs lately so we cannot be surprised).

Taking a look at the hourly chart below, those ups and down lately are evident.   Today, the high was able to extend above the high from Monday but stalled at the 61.8% (move down from the Nov 22 high) and against a trend line connecting recent highs at 1.28391.  There were a couple reasons to stall the rally.

What now?

Well buyers are leaning against the 50% and the 100 hour MA. The good news for those dip buyers is that risk is defined and limited.  If it holds, the 200 hour MA above (green line) at 1.27912 will need to be broken again for the low to have been in place.

If the 100 hour MA and the 50% is broken, it opens up the lower half of this weeks range and recent swing levels. I would look toward the 1.2747-53
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