GBPUSD stay below a topside trend line on the hourly chart

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | gbpusd

The GBPUSD is lower, but off session lows

The GBPUSD rose sharply yesterday after Brexit Party leader Farage said that his party would not run candidates against Tory seats.  The high reached to the 61.8% retracement and the swing hi from November 6 at the 1.28959, and backed off.  Today Farage said, the Brexit party will give no more ground to the Conservatives.  The market will be waiting polls that are conducted after yesterday's announcement to gauge the impact from the concession from the Brexit party.  

The GBPUSD is lower, but off session lows

Today, the price of the GBPUSD continued the move back lower and in the process retraced the move higher off the Farage comments yesterday.  The low extended briefly below the highs from last Friday's trade at 1.28216. The low reached 1.28148 before bouncing higher (see red numbered circles). 

The pair's corrective high off the low, stalled at a topside trend line on the hourly chart.  That trendline currently comes in at 1.2847.  A break above would be more bullish.

On the downside, the 100 hour moving average at 1.28306 represents a level that should solicit more's sellers on a break below. Having said that, the price has traded above and below that moving average line during 5 separate hourly bars in trading today. As a result, on a break below look for momentum below the 1.28216 to help confirm the downside bias.

The Trump speech at the Economic Club of New York is just 30 minutes away. Will the comments be bullish or bearish for the dollar? The expectations are that he pats himself on the back for employment gains, stock market gains, the recovery in general. Whether or not he touches on US China may be the deciding vote for the dollar higher or dollar lower impact.

The aforementioned technical levels should help define the bias shift from his comments

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