Be careful with gold longs in March

On of the best trades of the year has been gold. The precious metal is up 16.5% in the first two months of the year after today's $14 rally.

Gold has averaged a 1.07% decline in March, by far the worst month on the calendar. The past two Marchs have seen nearly 3% declines as well.

Technically, I'm closely watching the consolidation and wedge on the chart. I believe the trade is to go with a break.