The price has not been above the 200 hour MA since July 23rd.
The NZDUSD reversed higher in trading today after an early Asian session fall stalled at a lower trend line (that was the lowest low since September 2015). The rally moved above the swing "old low" at 0.62828. Once above, the price was able to stay above that level (see green numbered circles). That gave buyers more confidence to try the upside (with limited risk).
The rally has since taken the price above the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 0.63091 currently The price moved above that MA on Aug 23 and again on August 26/27, but only for a short time period. Getting above, and staying above is what the buyers want to see now. We currently trade at 0.6327
What is the next key level?
Getting above and staying above the 100 hour MA is the requirment for buyers (risk for longs). However, if the bottom is in place, getting and staying above the 200 hour MA (green line) is another key hurdle for the buyers. The price of the NZDUSD has not traded above its 200 hour MA since July 23rd. That MA comes in at 0.6341 currently.
That is a long time for the price to have not moved above that hourly MA. The price broke below at 0.6727 on that day.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart of the NZDUSD, you can see why the price has not traded above the 200 hour MA. Since July, the price has closed lower 24 out of 32 days. There simply has not been a lot of upside momentum on corrections. The last week has seen the price trade below a lower trend line. That trend line is now at 0.6342. That is right around the 200 hour MA level.
Is the two day rally a move that buyers will build on?
We will know if the 100 hour MA can hold support and the 200 hour MA can be broken on the topside at 0.6341 along with the underside of the trend line on the daily chart.
