S&P 500 falls below the 100-day moving average for the first time since October

Technical Analysis

Author: Adam Button | spx

First time below the 100-dma in the Biden era

The S&P 500 hasn't been below the 100-day moving average since late October. Even then it was only for a few days. Before that you need to go back to May 2020 for a sustained stretch below the key level, which is at 4326 today.
First time below the 100-dma in the Biden era
The VIX is up to 27.69, which is the highest since May.

Fear is certainly in the air. The market is sending a message to the Fed and to China that rate hikes aren't welcome.

The bond market is confirming the risk averse tone as 100-year yields fall 7.1 bps to a new session low at 1.2989%.

This commentary from JPM's Marko Kolanovic is doing the rounds:

"is primarily driven by technical selling .. However, our fundamental thesis remains unchanged, and we see the sell-off as an opportunity to buy the dip. .. Risks are well-flagged and priced in, with stock multiples back at post-pandemic lows .."
I'd be careful with that, Kolanovic is a guy who thinks everything is technically driven. I don't see any scenario where you can ignore what's happening in China. He's been calling for overweight in emerging markets lately.

He upgraded his year-end target on the S&P 500 last week:

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