100 hour moving average also corresponds with the high of a consolidation area from July to December
The EURUSD sits right on the ledge from a technical perspective.
The 100 day moving averages a key level at 1.19569. That level also corresponds with swing highs going back to August 18 and August 31 at 1.1965. The low price today reached 1.19567.
The swing highs from August defined the high of a up and down trading range from July 24 until the break higher on December 1 (see yellow area in the chart above). Moving into that consolidation range, could see the price go all the way down to the low of the yellow trading range at 1.16016.
In between sits a upward sloping trendline at 1.1883. Below that, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from March 2020 low comes in at 1.16947 and the rising 200 day moving average (green line in the chart above).
The combination of the 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement would be a solid downside target. It would also be somewhat of a standard correction of the longer-term trend higher seen since March 2020. In other words it's doable target.
First things first, however, and that is to get below the 100 day MA and enter the consolidation area.
