All the action in the NZD pairs

As North American traders enter for the day, the NZD is the strongest, while the JPY is the weakest. However, the NZD is the runaway winner as the biggest mover today.

The NZD is the runaway strongest currency

The RBNZ announced no change in their OCR but kept the next rate change window in the 2019-2020 range (projects a modest rise in Dec 2020). However, they also said they could lower or raise rates and that there were upside and downside risks to growth and inflation (CLICK HERE). The market deemed it "less dovish" and the squeeze was on in all the NZD pairs. The JPY is the weakest currency today. Stocks are higher which is helping to weaken the JPY (risk on flows).

Other than the NZD pairs, the GBP has the next biggest pip move but it is up and down (up 14 pips after being up around 60 pips at the highs). The EURUSD is trading at the lows at the start of the NY session with only a 36 pip range (there is room to roam - price is back below the 100 hour MA now at 1.13168). The USDJPY and USDCHF have ranges less than 34 pips. The NZDUSD is up 80 pips but it was higher (does it remind you of the AUDUSD on RBA day back on Feb 5 when the price shot higher on "less dovish" startement, only to come back down the next days?).

The ranges and changes for the major pairs

In other markets:

  • spot gold is down $2 or -0.15% at $1308.90
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $.28 or 0.55% at $53.39

In the pre-market for US stocks futures are implying a higher opening:

  • Dow Jones, +78 points
  • NASDAQ, +29 points
  • S&P, up 7 points

In the European stock markets:

  • German DAX, +0.27%
  • France's CAC, +0.37%
  • UK's FTSE, +0.60%
  • Spain's Ibex, -0.07%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.65%

In the US debt market, yields are little changed.

US yields are little change in early trading

The European 10 year benchmark yields are lower:

10 year benchmark yields in Europe are trading mostly lower

Key events today:

  • US CPI for January will be released with expectations of 0.1% and 0.2% extra energy
  • Feds Mester speaks at 8:50 AM ET economic Outlook and monetary policy
  • Fed's Bostick speaks at 8:50 AM ET at a European financial formum in Dublin
  • crude oil inventories will be released at 10:30 AM ET with expectations for a build of 2400K. The private data showed a surprise draw in their release late yesterday
  • Fed's Harker speaks on the economic outlook at 12:00 ET/1700 GMT
  • the US federal budget will be released at 2 PM ET/1900 GMT
  • RBNZs Orr will speak at 2:10 PM ET/1910 GMT

Pres. Trump is expected to sign the border deal to avoid another shutdown.

Mnuchin, Lighthizer have made it to China and will conduct meetings with China officials on Thursday/Friday.