The USDCAD has pushed to new session lows as crude oil prices surge.
The price of crude oil is currently up $3.34 or 5.4% $65.27. The price of crude oil fell 7 consecutive days, but is seeing a snapback rally today. The price fell -11.1% over that seven day. That move to the upside saw the price of the dollar Canada move up from a low on August 11 of 1.2488 to a high on Friday of 1.29483 (about 460 pip move). Friday did see a rotation back to the downside in the North American session which has continued in trading today.
Looking at the hourly chart of the USDCAD, the decline has now taken the price below its 100 hour moving average 1.27346 and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 11 low at 1.27185. The low price just reached 1.27044. Stay below the 100 hour moving average keeps the sellers more in control. Move back above and we could see some covering. Although it took 7 days to go an impressive 460 pips, it has taken only 29 hours to retrace 243 pips of that 460 pip gain. However, until the price can460 break back above the 100 hour moving average, I have to give the nod to the trend/sellers.
Other short-term clues may come from the 5 minute chart below.
Looking at it, the price started to dip and run away from its 100 bar moving average on Friday. The pair then fell below its 200 bar moving average, and after testing it, saw added selling momentum.
Today, the price has been able to stay below the falling 100 bar moving average. Each of the times the price has gotten close to the moving average line, sellers came in to put a lid on the pair.
The falling 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart is currently is at 1.27398 which is just above the 100 hour moving average. However, that moving average is moving lower. As a result, it may become a closer resistance level to get above (and stay above) if the buyers are to take more control. Until then, the sellers are still winning and in control.