USDCAD trades to a new low for the year but not by much. Why?

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

The low from yesterday reach 1.20783. The low for the stay reach 1.20776.

The USDCAD traded to a new 2021 low at 1.20776. That is the lowest level since September 2017. However, it only took out the low from yesterday by 0.7 pips. The low yesterday reached 1.20783.  

The low from yesterday reach 1.20783. The low for the stay reach 1.20776.

The hesitancy is likely due to the pair moving closer to the September 2017 low at 1.20612.  A move below that level would have the USDCAD trading at the lowest level since May 2015. 

Those longer-term swing levels are hard to crack. Traders tend to have an obligation to buy against those types of lows with a stop below. If the pair does bounce even modestly, it is a low risk trade to buy at 1.2080, risk 19 pips and look for something greater than 19 pips (which is not hard to do).  Hence the dip buying seen both yesterday and today.  

Drilling to the hourly chart, the high today stalled ahead of a topside trendline. That trendline currently comes in at 1.2127 (and moving lower).  That is also near the high from yesterday's trade (and the high for the week) at 1.21297.  That area would be a modest target on a bounce higher.   Break above that level and traders will eye the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.21653.

USDCAD on the hourly chart
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