Breaks failing...

The USDCHF moved (with more momentum) above the 100 day MA yesterday (at 0.9603). The run higher took the price up to 0.96484 today. That was just short of the 200 day MA at 0.96574 (well within 9 pips).

The data and news today, sent the price lower and back below a broken trend line (at 0.9608) and the 100 day MA (see blue overlay line at 0.9603). That area is now a risk/bias level for traders. Stay below is more bearish.

On the move lower today, the price did fall below a trend line and the 100 hour MA (blue line at 0.95916 currently). The low today did find support at a swing level (see red circle). Admittedly on Wednesday, the choppy price action saw trading above and below the level. However, today's low reestablishes the level as one to eye.

In addition to that level, the move back above the broken trend line and the 100 hour MA also makes that level one to eye. It also muddies the technical story a bit. "Is the 100 day MA and trend line more important?"or "Is the 100 hour MA and trend line more important?.

So for traders, go above 0.9608 and the bias is more bullish. But if the price should dip below the 100 hour MA at 0.95916 and then the 0.95829, the sellers will be felling more confident.