USD/JPY chops around after big fall earlier today

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | usdjpy

USD/JPY is seen around 102.40-60 levels currently

USD/JPY D1 09-03
The pair fell to a low of 101.57 before recovering to 102.50-70 to start the European morning. But as Treasury yields capitulated, that saw the pair fall back to 101.80 before finding some room for recovery now towards 102.40-60 once again.

10-year Treasury yields have also moved nearly 20 bps off the lows to 0.507% currently. The low for the day was at 0.314% but even so, yields are still more than 25 bps lower today.

For USD/JPY, technically there isn't much support before seeing 101.20 and then the 100.00 handle. However, talks of the BOJ intervening may play a role in limiting gains in the yen for now as the market also "calms down" a little bit.

In the big picture though, the technical situation isn't looking too pretty:

USD/JPY M1 09-03
After several attempts previously to break below its 200-month MA (blue line), we are seeing price start to fall below that as well as the 100-month MA (red line) too.

Notably, price is also looking to keep a break below a key trendline support from 2016.

Granted, this is the monthly chart so a lot can still happen in between but these will be key levels to watch as well in trading over the next few weeks.

For trading today, watch for how US stocks are going to trade later. If they start triggering more circuit breakers, we could see renewed risk aversion in the market to send the pair lower more so than it already is now.

Otherwise, with the risk mood so sour, it is hard to see a meaningful pullback above 113.00 unless Treasury yields miraculously recovers from its seemingly bottomless pit.

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