Sellers put a lid on the pair, but downside limited so far
The USDJPY traded lower yesterday and in the process fell away from its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) and ultimately cracked also below the 200 hour moving average for the first time since October 7. That move lower could not gather much momentum. The price tested a swing area from last week between 113.70 and 113.78, with the low extending to 113.643 at it's low, but selling could not be sustained, and the price closed back above its 200 hour moving average.
In trading today, the price moved higher in the Asian session, BUT did find willing sellers against its falling 100 hour moving average currently at 114.169. The inability to extend above that 100 hour moving average puts a technical lid on the pair there, and increases the levels importance. It will now take a move above that moving average line for a more bullish bias.
The pair is trading near it's lows and back below its 200 hour moving average at 113.953. Close intraday risk can also be found against that moving average level.
Overall, the price is still within the range for the week (which is a relatively narrow 105 pips) and not only below the 100 hour moving average but also the 200 hour moving average which gives at a bias tilt to the downside at least in the short term.
On a break lower, traders will look toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October low at 113.211, followed by the swing low from October 12 at 112.996 (call it 113.00) and the 50% midpoint level at 112.754.
On the topside if the 200 hour moving average can now be broken along with the 100 hour moving average, the buyers would re-assume full control and traders will look toward the swing highs near 114.50 and the high for the week at 114.69
