The bounce off the 100 day MA on Wednesday was a turning point for the pair.
The USDJPY started the trading week by moving above its 200 day moving average for the 2nd day in a row (see red shaded areas near the top of the chart above). It was the 3rd attempt above the 200 day moving average (there were two last Friday). Like the other two, this one also failed.
Later on that day, the price fell below a rising trend line, and semi floor (neckline) and the 100 hour moving average. That added to the technical selling pressure.
The run to the downside did not stop until the pair reached its next key day moving average at the 100 day MA on Wednesday. Buyers leaned, and the move back higher began.
The corrective move on Wednesday and Thursday, did find resistance near a swing area around the 104.82 level (see red numbered circles). Sellers put a lean against that level until today when the price was able to get above it and also it's falling 100 hour moving average (blue line). Ultimately, buyers continued the momentum to the upside.
What now?
The pair moved up to test a channel trendline and backed off. The broken 38.2% retracement at 104.922, has found support buyers. That is close intraday risk now. The topside trend line cuts across at 105.165 and that is the next hurdle for the buyers (who have more control). Get above that level and traders can be looking back toward the 105.332 area.
Should the buying momentum stall, and the price move below the 38.2% retracement, we could see a revisiting of the 104.82 level along with the 100 hour moving average at 104.768.
For now, however, the buyers remain in control
