Big rise in ADP has traders thinking toward the Non-Farm Payroll report tomorrow

Is all this fear much ado about nothing, or are employers getting suckered into hiring at the peak?

It is too early to tell, but the ADP report was strong and it comes after a strong Christmas buying season in the US as well. So the picture does not look as bad as the "stories" including Apple. The Dow futures are implying a -240 point decline now. This is about 125 points higher than the lows.

For the USDJPY, the price has just ticked to a new post-crash high at 107.99 (just shy of 108.00 - see hourly chart)

Looking at the weekly chart below, the price fall today got within 30 pips of the 2018 low 104.60 (the low reached 104.90). It was not right on the low but it was close enough given the BIG fall (it is like horse shoes and hand grenades in markets like that - just get close and traders will lean).

The correction higher took the price back above the 38.2% of the trend move lower from the NY high yesterday (see hourly chart). That level comes in at 106.646. The low - after the fall - stalled against that level twice today. By staying above that level and with stocks coming off the lows, some of the fear is fading away. The pair is now trading a little above the 61.8% of the move down at 107.72.

On the topside, the underside of the broken trend line on the hourly chart comes in at 108.428. The low from yesterday comes in at 108.70. They are doable but would likely need a rebounding stock market (I would guess).

Drilling to the 5-minute chart below, the price has moved above it's 100 and 200 bar MAs (at 107.538 - they are converged). For today, if the price is able to stay above those levels now, there may be more squeeze ahead. If the price goes back below, the buyers might get a little scared again (intraday turns more bearish again) and we could/should see the dip buyers today, give up (or lighten up).