The low for March was on the 1st day of the month

The GBPUSD's low came in at 1.3711 on the very first day of the trading month (on March 1). The price high peaked on Monday and Tuesday at 1.4244.

After peaking on Tuesday, March 26th, the price closed lower on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The low today reached 1.4010. A move below the 1.4000 would be a level traders will like to see in April. It is simply a key technical level.

Despite the lower closes over the last few days, the price is still up over 200 pips from the week's Monday low. Buyers in charge going into April, right?

Well not so fast.

Looking at the weekly chart of the GBPUSD above, the 200 week MA (green line in the chart) came in at 1.42659 last week. It will be around 1.4240 in the new week. The high price for last week stalled at 1.4244.

So the pair got within 22 pips of that key weekly MA line, and that was close enough for the sellers.

The price high also failed to get close to the 2018 high at 1.4344. The pair simply ran out of steam. Sellers emerged and they emerged at a key technical level.

Now, even though the price is 200+ pips off the highs, keep in mind that with the high at 1.4244 and the 200 week MA likely around 1.4240 in the first week of April, that area will be key for April.

Stay below 1.4240-44 and the sellers are more in control. Move above, and the bulls are back in charge and that may be the trend for the the rest of the month (the level is so important).

Make that line a key LINE IN THE SAND for your trading next week (and going forward).

What would a more bearish market look like in April if the high is indeed in place?

Looking at the daily chart below, the market has indeed been trending higher since January 2017.

In March/April 2017, the price moved above the 100 day MA back (blue line in the chart above - currently at 1.3700). There have been moves below the 100 day MA in June, August , and November last year, but each of the dips were modest. The bullish trend resumed.

The 100 day MA is lagging behind at 1.3700 (and rising). If the price high is in place against the 200 week MA, and the price is to go lower in April, a move below that MA will be eyed.

Before that key MA, is a trend line on the daily chart at 1.3882 (and rising). A move below that line is really the next bearish signal. Break that, and the 100 day MA becomes the focus.


As March fades into the sunset, and the sun rises on April, the GBPUSD is giving sellers a key reason to sell. The 200 week MA stalled the rally and will remain a key barometer for bulls and bears in the new trading month. Move above and the bulls are still in control. Stay below, and the focus will be more on the downside.

On weakness, the market will be eyeing the 100 day MA as a key target. The price has not been below that MA since November, and each time the price has dipped below it since April of 2017, the dips have been shallow and quickly reversed.

The 100 day MA comes in at 1.37000 currently but is moving higher. A move below will go a long way toward turning the tide in the GBPUSD in April after a steady wise for over a year.