The AUDUSD has now extended above its 100 hour moving average helped by the weaker then expected ADP report which came in at 106K versus 178K estimate.
The 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 0.7077. Earlier today in the early Asian session, the price tried to move below its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above), but could not sustain momentum. After moving above a swing area at 0.7057 to 0.70629 (see blue numbered circles in the chart above), the buyers took back even more control, and paved the way to the higher 100 hour MA.
Going forward through the FOMC Decision later today, the 100 hour moving average, the swing area down to 0.7057 and the rising 200 hour moving is also at 0.7057 are the key support and bias defining levels. Stay above is more bullish. Move below, and the bias tilts back to the downside.
On more upside momentum today, the swing era between 0.71217 and 0.71287 is the next target ahead of the extreme high from January at 0.7142. Move above those levels opens the door for further upside momentum
The ADP report was weaker, but the more important US jobs report will be released by the BLS on Friday. Estimates for nonfarm payroll are near 190K. Are the job cuts starting to be felt more in the economy? We will get a clearer picture on Friday.
With the Fed decision at 2 PM ET (and press conference at 2:30 PM ET), that will give the view from the Fed. The jobs report on Friday will give a view from the jobs perspective.
As far as I know, Fed's Powell does not have any "intel" of what the jobs numbers will be on Friday.
Overall, the Fed and market are a bit at odds with the market anticipating a quicker reversal in Fed policy.
