The Reserve Bank of Australia was projected to raise rates by 25 or 40 basis points depending upon the analyst. They ended up increasing rates by 50 basis points to 0.85%. Highlights from the decision:

  • Also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 bps to 0.75%
  • Inflation in Australia has increased significantly
  • Inflation is expected to increase further, but then decline back towards the 2% to 3% range next year
  • Australian economy is resilient; household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape
  • One source of uncertainty about the economic outlook is how household spending evolves
  • Rate hike is a further step in the withdrawal of the extraordinary monetary support during the pandemic
  • The resilience of the economy and the higher inflation mean that this extraordinary support is no longer needed
  • RBA expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead
  • The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and assessment of the outlook for <a data-v-6ba6fe73="" href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation[#lessthansign]a data-v-6ba6fe73="" href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i//" rel="follow" target="_blank" debug="" class="term__term-title" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 3px; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 154, 207); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, BodyFallback, serif; vertical-align: baseline; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; display: inline-block; background: rgba(0, 154, 207, 0.2); border-radius: 3px; white-space: nowrap;"> inflation and the labour market


AUDUSD
AUDUSD him trying to bounce

The price of the AUDUSD spiked higher on the news. Taking a look at the hourly chart above, the price spike moved above its

  • 100 hour moving average at 0.7208
  • 100 day moving average at 0.72285, and
  • Reached up to the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April high at 0.72449 (the high price reached 0.7245

However, the momentum to the upside could not reach the final major target at the 200 day moving average at 0.7255.

Buyers turned to sellers on the move back below those broken levels. The price retraced all of the gains, even falling below the rising 200 hour moving average (which was broken before the rate decision for the 1st time since May 19).

Since then however, the price has seen up and down price action with the pair trading above and below the 200 hour moving average in the process.

In the last hour, however, after reaching new session lows on the day at 0.7156, the price is back above the 200 hour moving average at 0.71825. Him will

  • Can it stay above that 200 hour moving average?
  • Can the price extend back above the 100 hour moving average at 0.7208?

Those are the 2 targets that need to be broken once again if the buyers are start to take back more control. After that, the 100 and 200 day moving averages (along with the 50% retracement) would be eyed.

The market traders in the AUDUSD got the news they wanted to push the pair higher. However, the cluster of resistance from the MAs and 50% midpoint put some landmines in the way. Getting through those landmines is still required to give buyers more confidence. However, sellers may also continue to lean on rallies with stops on a break of the 200 day MA.

Be aware, the price action today showed there is some reluctance despite more hawkish central bank interest rate policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia.