The AUDUSD has continued a run higher in trading today which has the pairs trading range at 81 pips. That is just 3 pips short of the 22 day average (about a month of trading).
That run higher has started to hit upside targets. The first is the 38.2% of the move down from the February 2 high. That comes in at 0.69704. Above that,
- The falling 200 hour MA comes in at 0.6974.
- The swing area between 0.6983 to 0.6996 comes into play
- The 50% of the move down from the February 2 high at 0.7006.
Last week, the high price stalled AFTER breaking above the converged 200 hour and 50% retracement at 0.7006.
On the downside, drilling to the 5 minute chart, shows the pair climbing with the 100 hour MA as the guide. After moving lower in the Asian session, the price started to trade back above the 100 and 200 bar MA. After a final test of both near 0.6914, the price stepped higher. A move above the 100 hour MA stalled, and there was another test of the 100 bar MA before an acceleration to the upside near 0.6928.
Now with resistance targets starting to be reached, there is some rotation to the downside. On the downside, the 38.2% -50% of the last leg higher comes in at 0.6949 to 0.6954 (see chart below). Below that, the rising 100 bar MA (blue line) and the 100 hour MA would be eyed. Both of those come near 0.6942 with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart moving to the upside.
It would take a move below these levels now to give sellers against the upside targets more confidence. Absent that, and the move off the high is a modest correction of the move to the upside today.
