The buyers had a shot to run higher after the Canadian CPI data this morning suggested that the BOC might have enough proof to cut rates in June. However, after running higher and extending to the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.36736, technical sellers who could define and limit risk leaned against the moving average, and pushed the price back down. That move lower has now taken the price back below its 200-hour moving average at 1.36447.

The holding of the 100-bar MA above (as well as the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3681) has set that area as key resistance. Traders will need to get above those levels to shift the technical bias firmly in the buyers favor.

On the downside, with the price now below the 200-hour moving average of 1.36447, the short-term tilt is back to the downside with the 100-day moving average 1.36192 and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the December 2023 low at 1.35899, the main downside targets now for the pair.

Buyers had their shot despite hopes of a BOC cut in June. They missed. Can the sellers now push below support, or will traders ping-pong between support and resistance and wait for more dovish confirmation?