On Friday, traders tried - but were unsuccessful - in extending the price of the EURUSD materially above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below currently at 1.13135), nor below the 200 hour MA (green line currently at 1.12823).
On Friday, there were two separate tries above the 100 hour MA in the day, with both failing fairly quickly. Then on the downside, there was a single look below the 200 hour MA on Friday, which also failed quickly.
Today, the price opened between those moving averages and initially moved lower. Once again the 200 hour moving average was broken, but momentum could not be sustained. The price moved back to the upside, but this time stalled ahead of the higher 100 hour moving average. The price backed off.
The EURUSD price is caged between the MAs.
At some point, there will be a "jail break" with momentum either above the 100 hour MA or below the 200 hour MA. Perhaps, the traders are looking for a fundamental catalyst to give the pair the shove (and run).
What we also know from the price action today, is that the low to high trading range for the day is only 36 pips. That range is well below the 70 PIP average seen over the last 22 trading days (around the month of trading). As a result, there is room to roam on a break. Be aware for a cleaner break at some point.
For now, however, traders seem intent to be a good prisoner and not wander far from the confines of the moving average cage.
